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Showing posts from 2025

From Aid to Arms: Gaza's Ceasefire Marks Turning Point in Wider Middle East War

From Aid to Arms: Gaza's Ceasefire Marks Turning Point in Wider Middle East War By Tim Garbutt As food airdrops streak across Gaza’s skies and an Israeli truce holds from 10am to 8pm, the humanitarian lens reveals deeper geopolitical fractures. France’s bold recognition of a Palestinian state signals not just symbolic solidarity, but strategic recalibration — a marker of shifting fault lines from Washington consensus to continental autonomy. Ceasefire or Capitulation? The narrow truce windows signal exhaustion — not peace. With Gaza's infrastructure pulverised and its population reduced to dependency on drone-dropped rations, the endgame feels less like diplomacy and more like surrender under siege. The absence of broader Arab or Global South alignment leaves Palestinians stranded in a narrative largely controlled by Western broadcasters and donors. Recognition Amid Ruin France’s diplomatic recognition — potentially followed by other Western EU states — separates continental Eu...

Border Tensions and Landmine Controversy

    Thailand has formally accused Cambodia of violating the Ottawa Treaty after discovering eight newly planted anti-personnel landmines in the Chong Bok area , deep within Thai territory. The Thai military claims the mines were freshly laid and not remnants from past conflicts, citing surface placement and lack of vegetation as evidence. Cambodia denies the allegations, suggesting the mines may be old or misattributed. Both countries are signatories to the Ottawa Convention, which bans the use and stockpiling of such mines. Thailand is preparing a UN complaint , while Cambodian officials call for an ICJ investigation , arguing the accusations are politically motivated. While Cambodia has raised concerns over Thai Cluster Munitions dropped in F16 air strikes. And even rather silly attempts to smear Thailand for using poison gas or bio/chemical weapons - the former a rather shoddy photoshop of a USA wildfire plane in California tweeted by the Khmer PM wife. Myanmar Drones and...

Mines 2030 — A Mirage? UNMAS Waste, War Echoes & LIDAR Futures

  By Tim Garbutt Despite $700M+ in cumulative funding over the years, the UN Mine Action Service (UNMAS) continues to underperform, obfuscate, and stagnate. The 2024 report reveals worrying signs of ineffectiveness, especially as we approach the critical Mines 2030 deadline . Here's why it's time to push for radical overhaul — or risk drifting into irrelevance. 1. The Numbers Game: $41M for 14 Nations — But Where’s the Substance? 591 landmines removed globally: that’s barely 2 landmines per day across all 14 active countries — a stunningly low output and c.$69,000(!) per landmine. No listed staff or admin costs for UNMAS offices in New York or Geneva — implying either hidden overheads or ghost structures - and very incomplete accounts. No named email contacts in official documents: UNMAS offices resemble black boxes, immune to scrutiny. Add to this: key nations like Cyprus are still listed - though demining halted there in 2017(!) . That either reflects legacy accounting ...

Trigger Points: Thailand’s Gun Epidemic and the ASEAN Challenge

  Trigger Points: Thailand’s Gun Epidemic and the ASEAN Challenge The Or Tor Kor mass shooting near Chatuchak Market in Bangkok is a flashpoint for guns in Thailand with 5 killed by a lone shooter.  Thailand ranks second only to Pakistan for civilian gun ownership in Asia—an unsettling distinction for a country with notoriously strict firearm laws.  With over 10.3 million guns in circulation and an ownership rate of 15.1 per 100 people , Thailand has more civilian guns than the rest of ASEAN combined(!). Yet despite the legality barrier, nearly 4 million firearms remain unregistered , enabling a booming black market. Annual gun deaths hover around 3,830 —a gun death rate of 4.45 per 100,000 , tragically punctuated by mass shootings such as: 2020: Nakhon Ratchasima mall siege (30 dead) 2022: Nong Bua Lamphu nursery massacre (36 dead) 2023: Siam Paragon mall shooting (2 dead) 2025: Or Tor Kor market (5 dead) These aren’t isolated events. They’re signals of systemic failure...

Thailand–Cambodia Border Crisis: Weekend War Signals Dangerous Shift in Thai Politics

Over the weekend, Thailand and Cambodia plunged into their most violent border conflict since the 1979 Khmer Rouge collapse and Vietnam occupation, with  14 civilians killed   and   two Thai airstrikes   marking a dramatic escalation. The strikes—launched by   F-16s from Ubon Ratchathani —targeted Cambodian military positions near the disputed   Ta Muen temple   in Surin province.  The  first time Thailand, or any Asian nation, has used combat jets in a conflict since 1979 or even 1975 , excluding Myanmar intercepts as peace dawns across 21C Asia?  Wiser heads now agreeing a ceasefire with ASEAN, and POTUS Trump hoping it will hold and reconstruction begins after the firefight frenzy of the last few days. The violence erupted after Cambodian forces allegedly fired  BM-21 rockets  into Thai territory, killing 14 civilians and injuring dozens. Thailand responded with airstrikes and declared  martial law in eight border distr...

Bluff or Brinkmanship? UK’s Taiwan War Talk Rings Hollow Amid Pacific Realities

  Bluff or Brinkmanship? UK’s Taiwan War Talk Rings Hollow Amid Pacific Realities By Tim Garbutt Defence Secretary John Healey’s assertion that the UK “would fight” over Taiwan jolted headlines this weekend, but the strategic subtext invites deeper scrutiny. Speaking aboard the HMS  Prince of Wales  in Darwin, Australia, Healey's comment alongside AUKUS allies seemed designed more to signal resolve than outline policy — and perhaps rightly so, given the uncomfortable mismatch between UK global rhetoric and regional force capability. UK’s Pacific Posture: Symbolism Over Substance? Britain maintains just two active warships in the Indo-Pacific, including the  Prince of Wales , now participating in joint exercises. While technically bolstering deterrence, the footprint is more ceremonial than commanding. Unlike the Cold War's Atlantic naval chessboard, the Pacific theatre demands scale — and the UK simply doesn't have it. 17 UK warships and 40 Admirals a telling statist...

Football Came Home - or Women's Sports still at the back of the queue?

For generations, the phrase  “football’s coming home”  echoed as a nostalgic dream — a yearning for glory often left unfulfilled. But now, after a string of historic wins, the chant carries new weight, new heroes, and a bold new direction. Because football has come home — brought by women. Redefining Greatness With the Lionesses’ electric 3-1 victory over Spain in the 2025 UEFA Women’s Euro final, England made history. This wasn’t just a win — it was a defining moment: First England team (men or women) to defend a major international trophy Three consecutive finals: Euros 2022, World Cup 2023, Euros 2025 First major trophy won on foreign soil Over 10 million viewers tuned in — ITV’s most-watched broadcast this year And Sarina Wiegman, the tactical mastermind at the helm, became the first manager in history to reach  five consecutive  major tournament finals — across two national teams. She’s not just rewriting records; she’s reimagining leadership in football. Year T...