Franco-Thai War Echoes in 2025: Macron’s Mediation in the Shadow of Scambodia

The ghosts of the 1940–41 Franco-Thai War are stirring again—not in the jungles of Indochina, but in the diplomatic corridors of Paris, Phnom Penh, and Bangkok. As Thailand and Cambodia edge toward renewed friction over their shared border.

And the symbolism of the Victory Monument in Bangkok—erected to commemorate Thailand’s gains in that brief colonial-era conflict—has taken on a new, volatile relevance.

On June 28, thousands of elderly Yellowshirt protesters gathered at the Victory Monument, waving Thai flags and demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra amid hints of the usual default coup demands. The rally, organized by the “Uniting the Power of the Land for the Defence of Thai Sovereignty” group, was sparked by a leaked audio clip allegedly involving Cambodia’s former leader Hun Sen. Protesters accused the Thai government of compromising national sovereignty - despite shooting dead a Khmer soldier and locking down the border - and called for a return to even more assertive border policies.

Amid this unrest, French President Emmanuel Macron stepped into the fray. In a phone call with PM Paetongtarn on June 27, Macron pledged to support bilateral negotiations between Thailand and Cambodia, offering France’s assistance in facilitating dialogue and even providing documentation from the 1893-1907 French gunboat diplomacy era of the redrawing of Thai/Lao/Khmer borders if needed. Macron’s involvement is a striking historical echo—France was the colonial power in Indochina during the original Franco-Thai War - Vichy Hanoi and Paris often battling each other rather than Axis Germany or Japan - and now finds itself playing peacemaker between its former territories. The Phibun 1941-46 Greater Thailand borders perhaps ignored as a diplomatic black hole by all.

UK with a role to play too, not just as one of the largest tourism nations and City investors to 21C Siam, but from the Bowring Era of Myanmar and Malay Deep South border treaties and even 1926 Mekong Treaty and Kra Canal veto.

But the border dispute is only one layer of a deeper regional crisis. The so-called “Scambodia” scandal continues to unravel beyond just BKK and London Square Mile, with Amnesty International releasing a damning report detailing how over 100,000(!) people have been trafficked into cyber scam compounds in Cambodia. These operations, often run by Chinese criminal syndicates, are accused of modern slavery, torture, and collusion with local authorities. 

The Cambodian government’s response has been tepid at best, with many compounds, valued at $12BN money laundering according to Paris-exiled KH opposition leader Sam Rainsy, continuing to operate even after police raids. Concerns raised at the democratic deficit of KH dynasty politics of Hun Sen and Bristol's Hun Manet, albeit the same charges could be laid at BKK's door with, coups aside, not one but 3 Shinawatra's as PM in the last decade.

Japan, too, has entered the diplomatic arena with more shades of its mediation in the Franco-Thai War. During a recent visit to Bangkok, General Morishita Yasunori, Chief of the Japan Ground Self-Defence Force, expressed concern over the Thai-Cambodian tensions. Japan reaffirmed its commitment to regional peace and offered support through military cooperation and humanitarian initiatives under the Cobra Gold framework.

China perhaps too silent on the impact on its traffiked citizens by Triad mafias and tourism fears, and Myanmar brutal coup junta/ethnic war or Scambodia support. And Uncle Xi too shy of resolution of the India 19C McMahon borders?

As these threads converge—historic grievances, modern-day trafficking, and international diplomacy—the region stands at a crossroads. Will ASEAN unity and international mediation prevail, or are we witnessing the early tremors of a new geopolitical fault line in Southeast Asia?

If the first shots have been fired, then hopefully they are also the last ones - and coup/dynasty politics confined to the dustbin of history.