Turbulent Thailand: Political Crisis and the Soft Power Pivot

 

Thailand, a nation celebrated for serene temples and soft power exports—from Muay Thai to Michelin-starred mango sticky rice—is once again caught in a storm of political upheaval. But beneath the headlines of suspended prime ministers and lese majesté trials, another battle is unfolding: the fight to define national identity through culture, creativity, and diplomacy.

Another PM Down: The Revolving Door of Thai Leadership

Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra was suspended on 1 July 2025 by the Constitutional Court after a leaked phone call with Cambodia’s Hun Sen—a fairly minor diplomatic misstep during a tense border standoff. She joins her predecessor Srettha Thavisin, ousted in August 2024 over an ethics violation, in what critics call a cycle of "lawfare" targeting elected leaders—especially those from the Shinawatra lineage.

The pattern is familiar: popular premiers rise, the establishment pushes back, courts intervene, and coalitions crumble. In the latest twist, Suriya Juangroongruangkit steps in as caretaker PM while Thailand’s ruling coalition haemorrhages support. Approval ratings are plummeting to under 12% - except for Peoples Party. Yellow Shirt protests are back. And conservative elites are calling for a return to “order” and “monarchy-first governance.”

The Gavel Over Democracy: Lèse Majesté and Lawfare

Thailand's royal defamation law—Article 112—continues to be weaponized against activists and politicians:

• Former PM Thaksin Shinawatra faces trial now for royal insult over a 2015 interview.

• Activist Anon Nampa has been sentenced to over 26 years for symbolic speeches.

• Paul chambers USA academic of Khaki Capital arrested and sacked/fleeing Thailand for an event blurb he didn't even write.

• Move Forward Party, renamed as Peoples Party—which swept Bangkok in 2023—was dissolved for proposing 112 reform with Charter delays.

The judiciary, critics say, has become a political actor—unpacking not just laws, but loyalties.

Few would argue a Constitutional Court should wield the gavel on a PM's performance rather than being limited to procedural points.

Thai PM's perhaps regretting not being active in biting the bullet on repealing112/lese majeste and implementing Charter reforms and Parliament imposing Lawfare/Khaki curbs - Casino laws seem an almost frivolous use of Parliamentary time now. And the Hun Sen phone call as frivolous a reason for baying street protests to topple a PM.

Business and Governments must be scratching their heads at who's in charge with a new caretaker PM plus a new Cabinet and Opposition/Coalition resignations. PM's serving less than a year or ousted to exile and repeated coup chatter. And People's Party still with a huge popular mandate.

Culture as Soft Power—and Soft Shield

Interestingly, Paetongtarn remains Culture Minister (possibly subject to Royal approval) in her caretaker capacity. It’s a position that, until recently, was considered ceremonial. But in today’s Thailand, culture is strategy. Festivals like the Isaan Creative Festival have become platforms for:

• Regional soft power projection

• Unity narratives amid border disputes

• Cultural decentralization that revalues Isaan and Lao-Khmer identity

The parallels with BBC Alba and Scotland’s Gaelic revival are striking: both use local heritage as a counterpoint to central authority and a springboard for soft power.

Enter the UK: From Aviation Routes to Cultural Roots

While Bangkok burns politically, UK–Thailand relations are quietly warming through trade and tourism. something of a contrast to Thai-China relations of tourism fears of traffik after the Wang Xin Incident. And limited to Chinese official journalism rather than in-China Thai newsrooms.  Recent highlights:

• IndiGo’s new Mumbai–Manchester route, welcomed by the UK in Mumbai and VisitBritain, boosts regional business and people-to-people ties as a harbinger of greater UK tourism.

• The UK’s Creative Economy programme—although modest at ~$600K per region—is building long-term value through design incubation, textile diplomacy, and youth exchanges.

• There’s growing appetite for joint cultural programming, especially in post-Brexit and post-CPTPP landscapes as Rejoin despite 66% UK approval is delayed.

The British Council, Thai festival networks, and Trade envoys could collectively frame Thailand not just as a crisis state, but as a creative state—vibrant, regional, and globally curious. 

Paetongtarn investing her time in UK trade visits and Naomi Campbell fashion programs, even her Surrey Hospitality university days, clearly sees Soft Power as her crucial role beyond just Pheu Thai politics.

Threading the Future

The return of Sam Rainsy–style opposition politics in Cambodia, the Mekong border friction, and the rise of ASEAN soft power players like Indonesia and Vietnam are changing the game. If Thailand is to remain culturally and diplomatically competitive, it will need to stabilize politically—and fast.

But in the meantime, stories, art, sport, and silk might just be enough to hold the fabric together.