Monday 13 May 2019

Election Princess and Princess Leia and Tiggers for Thailand and UK?


The Thai election is still sparking with life from the brief campaign of Princess Ubolratana standing for Prime Minister.

Within a day though King Rama X, that new title from the Coronation last week, ruling that the candidacy would not be viable despite Princess Ubolratana being a commoner rather than royal albeit with royal duties.

And the Coronation confirming Princess Ubolratana as 7th in line for the throne and a honorific royal title too. The princess no doubt still with a sceptred view on Thai politics amidst the cobras and watermelons of the new constitution.

Even the Future Forward party facing legal action over fairly minor and innocuous website errors raises the spectre of another judicial coup against young turk politicians such as Nottingham's Thanathorn and London's Pannika, sporting a Princess Leia hairstyle to channel real and even R2D2 virtual opposition to any evil empire, in Thailand or ASEAN.

The revived flurry of 1984 Orwell and three fingered Hunger Games salutes and sandwich protests even had a brief Battle of the Hashtags with Princess Ubolatana's #howcomeitsthewayitis vying for popularity with Future Forward's #porrakpor.

And now the judge crimes against the police of #IamChokesbestfriend – Chief Constable Pughsley of Kent Police presumably decrying it all as a Big Joke on his Resilience fax.

As an aside, one or two Thai election posters entered the arena of #TimsThaiTypos worthy of the printing errors on Australian banknotes. A lack of “responsibilty”, or responsibility if you prefer, at Canberra's Central Bank that such financial silliness could only delay hispeed rail from Sydney to Perth, despite the sterling efforts of Miss Moneypenny of the FCO and BPO, dynamic Vicki Treadell new UK ambassador to Australia.

### A bumper crop of new political parties and politicians ###

Reassuring for Thailand’s UN Peacekeeping troops deployed to Sudan is dynamic new UK ambassador Chris Trott in South Sudan gearing up for UK Peacekeeping and UN Policing with lavish DFID support and Kent’s Royal engineers and Ghurkas.

Separately Lord Balimoria, a cobra expert for India and UK strategic overhaul of international students whether STEM or not, also to the fore in demanding an upgrade of NHS shortages and training gaps.

But in Thailand if nothing else the 24th March election has yielded an astonishing crop of 10,000 candidates standing after over 4 years of junta rule, and Future Forward not the only new kids on the block, with parties such as the Forest Party or Commoner Party and their rather fun and innovative rice basket posters.

The new Thailand-Cambodia rail link officially opened 3 weeks ago by PM Tu and PM Hun Sen providing carriage for such increased rice trade, or Isaan silk and Kampot pepper and Nissan car parts if you prefer, not just on the new link to HCMC but through the Kwai upgrades and Yangon and Bangladesh to Hyderabad. If anything a template for South Sudan and its dusty and rusty Wau-Juba-Kampala link.


### China’s railway to Thailand and Cambodia? ###

Chinese grasp of the new Cambodia railway and talk of a metro and monorail similar to the London Underground and Bangkok Skytrain perhaps a strategic failure for both UK and Thailand without a Rail Group. That an astonishing oversight for UK given its secret weapon of the British Transport Police. Inventing both railways and police and not being able to export a railway police a rather silly British joke worthy of Mr Bean but at the taxpayer's expense.

While Brexit in Britain has sucked the life out of the political process, even with horrifying statistics such as UK life expectancy falling a further 6 years and regional discrepancies of 11 years, as Parliament splinters with breakaway parties such as the Change party Tiggers.

Yet dynamic Princess Ubolratana's intervention has surely helped charter a path through the seismic quandary of Thai politics and The Shinawatra Syndrome: to lose one Shinawatra as Prime Minister may be careless, but to lose two in a modern democracy?

That Thai Charter public opinion for a decade returned both the Shinawatra's, Thaksin and Yingluck, to the Prime Minister's office with policies such as the 30 baht healthcare scheme that is in essence the basis of the UK NHS free healthcare or stalled US Medicare.

For despite Uncle Tu's efforts as PM, and forestalling serious clashes of colour shirts, (that Uncle Tu light touch military intervention surely heeded by new military heads such as Khun Apirat after the chaos of the Bangkok and Pattaya revolts), the Charter revealed a seachange if not an overwhelming tsunami of public opinion in the North and Isaan and Deep South in stark contrast to the metropolitan musings of Bangkok.

The Westminster Village navel-gazing of Brexit similarly weakening UK's standing in Brussels and Berlin and Buriram and the wider world. Everybody waiting for the MP election rather than MEP.

### White buses and red buses? ###

With both Thailand and even more so Britain looking like disunited kingdoms could Uncle Tu run Englandshire on half day closing Wednesdays? Perhaps even London’s Paris Hilton, the glamorous Khun Nailert of Surrey (Chaneling her inner fashionista?) could be deployed on the buses again after the airclearing success of the Nailert Garden Festival and UN Women activity?

UK is facing a perfect storm of narrowed Brexit bandwidth and stalled infrastructure and transport even in Meiji Kent with downsizing of Japanese investments from Panasonic to potentially (confirmed just today) Honda. Hitachi and Fujitsu immune so far. And few strategic tourism initiatives on the scale (perhaps with the exception of the third runway at Heathrow and landing slots for Thai Air etc) of the Khun Kobkarn repurposing of U-Tapao for both tourism and the EEC industrial strategy. And the Smart City projects in ASEAN and being developed by Panasonic and Mitsui and Hitachi.

The sensitive handling of UK and Thailand and Japan in improving the Kwai railway could be as effective a 21st century commemoration as Eire’s remembrance of the 10,000 Irish workers in the USA Transcontinental railroad.

### Blue Flag not Crapita plus Gilgamesh ###

The Shinawatra rice pledging scheme if mired in tales of corruption or excess also formed the basis of a welfare system. Indeed Uncle Tu has lately reinstated elements of the rice scheme but also developed the quietly excellent Blue Flag shops and credit card. The shops perhaps translate into UK food banks or perhaps the value range at Tesco supermarkets, while the credit card is a step far beyond UK efforts for digital welfare and Universal Credit.

Indeed the dynamic Public Affairs Committee guru, Meg Hillier having to wield her handbag on the Verity UK government scheme of another UK Big IT and Big Data fail by such as Crapita. And if the plug has been yanked out on that scheme surely Ms Hillier and lead tigger Sarah Wollaston must be questioning how to involve Tim Apple and Bill Microsoft, even Warren Buffet's UK investment charge, for the goldmine of 70 years of NHS data.

Dynamic Senator Eshoo in Silicon Valley California would no doubt see it as another goldrush, far beyond the Uber float, for tech companies such as Google's Calico - their anti-ageing work vital for a Gilgamesh Strategy for ageing societies such as UK and USA and even Thailand.

Even for rollout in Myanmar - that new Thailand Cambodia railway extending through Kwai and beyond the dead-end of Dawei to Oxford's Aung San Suu Kyi's door with wagonloads of TB and Cancer and Dengue vaccines?

### A corrupt High Court is Choke’s or Grabiner’s best friend? ###

While Brexit from my MP and Mayor work underscores a weakness in much of UK society, those PM May burning injustices still burning strong, highlighted by the UK justice system rot with the Secret Barrister bestselling book on court failings, corruption from One Essex Court and Lord Grabiner through to the Londonski routine Russian corruption of the High Court, whether Magnitsky or GPT-Saudi arms deals.

Choke’s best friend may well be the corrupt judges sat with Judge Mann in the UK High Court.

Perhaps a glimmer of hope though for Russia with both Bill Browder and Michael McFaul linking up at a Scaramucci conference, and Secretary Pompeo heading from UK to Moscow for Putin talks after the McCarthyist froth of no collusion of POTUS Trump has fizzled out like a dud rocket on the launch pad.

Russian oligarch wealth from fossil fuels evaporating like Scotch mist or Chiang Mai haze.

But UK's long-held reputation for healthcare whether NHS or Alexander Fleming and invention of penicillin and genome research has been rocked by the rising tides of Brexit with a lack of preparedness in the May government even for diabetes insulin.

That a strategic failing relevant for Thailand too in stockpiling and manufacturing for Pandemics. Both Princess Ubolratana and Uncle Tu aware that TB, Thailand’s blight, or the next Spanish Flu are as dangerous for royals and generals as for Isaan buffalo loyally toiling under the ever-hotter sun of Climate Change.

### A Chinese dagger pointed at Bangkok? ###

It may be excessive to describe the Chinese-Lao railway as a dagger pointed at the heart of Bangkok with PLA troop trains thundering through the night from Yunnan, but certainly the debt trap is as real as say Chinese swine flu leaping a species and few hundred miles without the necessary Resilience support.

And, potable tap water and water wars aside, The Mekong dams and Tonle Sap and ocean overfishing no doubt food for thought for a Royal (Thai) Navy Resilience Group with the Royal (UK) Navy

Ms Hillier perhaps only pausing for her colleague dynamic Transport Chair Lillian Greenwood to unbuckle her cycle panniers, and set about whacking Transport Minister Chris Grayling around the head and chest over the Ramsgate fishy ferry in the Homer-Howes tradition of East Kent council corruption with Manston-Infratil and Pleasurama.

Don’t let up Lill, give him another one, he knows he deserves it!

And if Princess Ubolratana's sincerity shines through in both loyalty to her friends in Dubai and Hong Kong, (Hong Kong's shipping container industry surely vital for both Bangkok's and Sihanoukville's new deep sea ports and even Yangon's), and her diligence to the public, surely her To Be Number One charitable works are in the tradition of King Bhumibol in resisting the scourge of drugs infecting UK and USA with deaths from Shan, Wa, and Afghan heroin, much as yaba infects Thailand.

While the Princess Diary and Number One TV shows and films are in the tradition of Uncle Tu's Friday FDR fireside chats in clearly advertising (Sincerity Advertising or not) peace and prosperity for Thailand. After the Senate rigmarole Uncle Tu might well feel cast in a role similar to the UK’s Duke of Wellington, he exasperated on moving from the military to Downing Street at issuing instructions to politicians who wanted to debate them forever. Perhaps Uncle Tu’s cardboard cutout standins were wise props for any such dull meetings.

Peace and prosperity all the more important this year from a stable Government House, with Thailand as ASEAN Chair and Finland EU Chair to highlight OBOR rail and port and airport links between Thailand and Europe - UK no doubt remaining in EU after a few more weeks of arcane debates akin to how many angels can dance on the head of a pin.

### UK Sporting Superpower in Europe and ASEAN and the only World Series ###

While most Brits could forgive Princess Ubolratana for supporting Germany in the 2018 World Cup the potential for Sports Diplomacy is all the stronger with Khun Tippy promoting the King Power and Leicester City teams. And four UK teams in both European finals is an astonishing success for the Premier League, surely the real World Series of sport, much as baseball in the USA Year of Sport would like to claim otherwise.

And with the flagship Tour de Yorkshire cycling event and London Marathon, few would doubt UK as a Sports Superpower. That expertise and sports science STEM work as relevant to a Raleigh Rally in Juba or Tirana, or a Toshiba Thailand Fun Run in London or Tokyo. On the latter surely the UK needs more of both rice cookers and stylish running vests?

In my Mayor and MP campaigns in UK I've urged not just the Shinawatran politics of the watermelon in Climate Change but also rejuvenation of the UK High St and school meals. Laos and Virginia leading in both those areas: Britain's nation of shopkeepers bankrupt.

While UK universities leading the world with USA universities is surely a strong team to say expand Thai students and Chevening and Marshall scholarships. 8,000 Thai students in UK seems anaemic compared to 20,000 Malay students even with that Commonwealth heritage. Eire and Australian universities could surely ramp up their Thai graduates and even Surin Charity Village Schools support. The first Surin School built for just $30,000, as both UK and USA struggle to spend their $20BN aid budgets to deliver UNSDG30 and over 60M children still not in school being vaccinated or playing on their Apple phones or Toshiba computers.

Thailand's expansive yet underperforming education budget on English language learning is proving a handicap in ASEAN as far as Hyde Park Corner with the aforementioned Malaysia as well as Singapore and Philippines and even Vietnam outperforming Thai schools. To Be Number One for Thai schools and the 500 Clubs and 134,000 16-24 year olds surely a worthy aim for King Rama X renewed support alongside the King Bhumibol Royal Projects.

### An Army of Junkies? ###

Debates around conscription or the rise in defence spending or even the purpose of the Thai military within ASEAN, issues along with S44 and lese-majeste use and even reforms to the junta constitution are the weft and weave of a modern democratic Thailand. And it’s hardly outrageous to consider Thailand has seen its last military coup. A UK Brexit coup forestalled by the usual patience and fortitude of the UK military as well as perhaps the ill-discipline of UK recruiting from prisons (a Sven Hassel regiment of convicts for landmine clearance in Cambodia or Sudan?) or an Army of Junkies marching on its septum rather than stomach with cocaine squaddies not turfed out of the army.

Perhaps even reforms around the use of coups in Thailand are required: the outflow of FDI and shortfall of Chinese tourists in particular - the Great British Tourist not deterred by gunfire or bombs in struggling into their Union Jack shorts and heading to the beaches of Phuket and Hidden Thailand - damaging to Thai prosperity. While a Kaine War Powers Act being debated in UK and USA on the use of military force whether the Gulf of Tonkin or Iranian Gulf.

Those Thai Royal Projects though not so dissimilar to Prince Charles' Duchy of Cornwall projects: biscuits and cakes to British exports what Isaan silk could be fashioned for Thai exports. Prince Andrew also kickstarting UK exports and Royal reforms with his rather fun Pitch at the Palace programme that wouldn't be out of place at Government House (Bangkok or Naypyitaw) or Hua Hin palace.

The Thai auto parts industry benefitting not just from closer OBOR links with UK and Europe but the UK car industry: Jaguar and Landrovers the huge Ford and Nissan and - hopefully still -Honda factories. Even Richard Branson's Hyper Loop Rail (Buriram to Bombay or Hyderabad to HCMC in an hour?) nestling next to the British bus and tractor industry, even USA's John Deere, with 21st century tech in planting trees and hedgerows and clearing klongs and monitoring top soil and crops.

The Thai farm industry not mere peanuts either in value or scale of SME farms, that watermelon politics of Yingluck again.

### Britain on its bike and in the lead? ###

And building from the ground up an even stronger Thai film and television industry not just with Premier League football but a Bangkok Studios whether King Naresuan or Star Wars movies on multiplex rotation or not.

Even King Rama not averse to cycling with the Bike for Dad event or football from his Milfield days. While UK football king Gazza (Lineker not Gascoigne of King Power Leicester City FC and Match of the Day) would surely bow to Arsenal's ASEAN lead in community work.

The Trump-Kim nuclear summit highlighting rail travel through the Koreas and China to Hanoi and beyond. Kunming surely a strategic rail hub for Thailand and the Greater Mekong region, PLA troop trains perhaps heading for Uighur or Tibet or Hong Kong or Yalu, through to the auto industries of Chengdu and Yingluck container trade via Hong Kong.

The Kra Canal project perhaps viable, in Thai military terms, in reducing any need for two submarine bases on the Indian Ocean and South China Sea approaches, with a wider debate on the Indo-Pacific arms treaties and potential of drone shipping and submarines. Singapore perhaps over-hasty with German submarines against a backdrop of a second Chinese aircraft carrier. That carrier perhaps even more useful than Huawei for the Pentagon to talk up a new enemy and war in Asia. And the wider relevance of Resilience from Climate Change storms the length of the Kra peninsula and islands, as well as ASEAN Philippines and Indonesia and Commonwealth Malay peninsula surely more relevant than a sabrerattling.

With UK navy ships being phased out (HMS Kent the ship not region described as junk fit only to be scrapped) and the RAF surely in its last year or so of manned flight, Thailand and UK, even Commonwealth Australia, should be best placed for a strategic debate on coastguard gunboats and helicopters and RNLI. Even Weather and Space systems – still no Tsunami Warning system or Australia Space Agency launches? Sunday Times author Max Hastings calling for a new fleet of cheap and cheerful light frigates rather than the two UK vanity aircraft carriers in danger of following the previous carriers to the bottom of the sea off Singapore again in any Asian conflict.

If the Thai election and Brexit shambles have revealed fault lines in those nations surely interventions such as Princess Ubolratana and new political parties as the Tiggers and Future Forward are to be admired in beginning to steer a course through the logjams that beset the ships of state.

@timg33

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